Over the past few weeks, while on air, I’ve started to drop subtle hints as to what Im thinking for this upcoming summer season. However, I’m yet to let the rabbit out of the hat so to speak because everything that Im looking at right now suggests one thing, yet what has actually been happening doesn’t support it. It’s like that darn precious metals stock that you bought at $25 a share. Fundamentally everything is saying buy buy buy, yet ever since you bought into it, the stock has done nothing but drop. Why is that you ask? Well in the world of finance there could be a number of reasons for the sell off. I mean afterall, it seems every single day Bernankee gets up in front of the podeum and says something that investors don’t like, crushing the market. I can only imagine where the market would be right now if there wasn’t all of this Euro Zone fear to deal with and the constant on and off hopes for QE3. Anyway, that’s a different story for another time.
The world of weather can sometimes act the very same way. The La Nina has been slowly transitioning over to an El Nino within a developing mild spike of the cold phase PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). Or at least this is the pattern that is in the process of developing, or forecasted to develop. I sounded pretty smart just then didn’t I ? lol
In short what that means is the pattern that kept us VERY mild this past winter and UNBELIEVABLY warm this past March is in the process of changing. I’ve heard a lot of people say that a warm winter usually signals a hot summer. Well remember this, just because the winter was unusually mild doesn’t necessarily mean that the summer will follow suit. It could! It almost certainly could, but the big question here is… will it?
Now that this wacky out of season nor’easter just hit us I have quite a bit of support now as to my thinking for ths upcoming summer season. Finally we’re starting to see some signs as to what the ensembles have been saying for over two months now. So I think I will take a stab at the Summer Outlook this weekend and adjust things during the month of May if I have to. I have not made up my mind as to which day I will do this just yet (Saturday or Sunday), but I’ll post it on my Facebook page as we get closer to the weekend.
The only thing that may prevent me from doing this, this weekenk is whether or not we get another day of rain Sunday. If this ends up being a quiet and for the most part dry weekend I will show it. If not, I’ll wait until the following weekend because it’s going to take up some time. Time that I more than likely won’t have if there’s weather to talk about.
In conclusion I will give you this much….this summer will not be like last years. You guys all remember that don’t you? We typically average 17 days of 90 degree plus heat during the course of the year. Instead, last year’s blow torch produced something like 45 days! We also had two tropical systems hit us that produced 1 in 100 year floods. Things will be different this summer. Or at least they better be or this will be the last time I take a stab at a summer forecast! lol
– Chris Sowers –