The unseasonably, unbelievably, ridiculously warm weather continues as we move into April. Although generally speaking, overall, not as warm as what we saw in March (sounds kind of strange doesn’t it?). By the way, if you can think of another adjective to describe the warm weather thus far please feel free to let me know lol.
With that said, there is going to be a 2-3 day stretch of weather that will end up being the warmest weather that we have seen so far this year. As far the timing, it appears as if it will end up being Sunday-Tuesday ( 4/15 – 4/17) of next week.
Surface Map – Another area of high pressure will once again anchor itself off the coast of the Carolinas. This will drive a very warm west, southwest wind into the Delaware Valley. With the angle of the sun being as high as it it right now, the fact that the ground is so dry and a large amount of sunshine expected I could very easily see high temperatures climbing up into the 80s! What does the dry ground have to do with anything you ask? Well a lot of people don’t realize that the sun does not heat the air. The sun actually heats the ground. The ground in turn heats the air directly above it. It’s a process known as conduction. When the ground is moist, damp or flooded a good deal of energy that is emmitted from the sun is reflected back into the atmosphere. This means temperatures will never reach their full potential. However, when the ground is dry, ALL of the rays of the sun are absorbed and the ground heats up very quickly resulting in much hotter temperatures.
The physics within the forecast models do not have the ability to take this into account. Therefore, they will not show this kind of warm weather coming ahead of time. This is why the high temperatures on the 7 day forecast that you see right now for Sunday – Tuesday are fairly conservative, 80 degree highs. But as we get closer and closer one of two things will end up happening. One, the forecast models will begin to catch on last minute and you will see a sudden spike in the forecasted highs a day or so beforehand. Or two, the models will never catch on and Sunday, Monday and Tuesday will end up being 5-10 degrees warmer than the forecasted highs that are being shown right now. This is known as a temperature “BUST” within the forecast models.
Here is my thinking for Philadelphia and the surrounding area Sunday – Tuesday of next week. This is subject to change, but right now my confidence is about a 8.5 on a scale of 1-10. (Upper 80s are highlighted in bold).
Sunday’s Highs: Philadelphia 82, Dover 85, Atlantic City 82, Millville 83, Allentown 78
Monday’s Highs: Philadelphia 86, Dover 88, Atlantic City 87, Millville 88, Allentown 84
Tuesday’s Highs: Philadelphia 85, Dover 88, Atlantic City 86, Millville 86, Allentown 80
It looks like extreme southern Delaware, Baltimore, Washington DC and east central Virginia all may end up seeing there first day of 90s at some point during this timeframe. I think some locations in our viewing area may get close as well, but in the end will come up just short.
– Chris Sowers –