As I look at the European weeklies and ensembles (long range forecasting tools) I see a weather pattern that is getting ready to go through some big changes over the next couple of weeks.
An area of high pressure will travel east of Philadelphia and move out into the Atlantic by the beginning of next week (Tuesday). The forecast models slow this system down quite a bit once it hits the ocean. The idea here is that this high pressure system starts acting like a block with it’s clockwise winds pumping in warm surface air from the Gulf Coast. This will keep the arctic air bottled up into Canada and the northerntier states the rest of the winter.
At the same time the PNA (Pacific North American Pattern), which is a hemispheric pattern in the Gulf of Alaska, goes moderately negative. This activates the Southeastern Ridge off the coast of Florida. That too is an area of higher pressure, only this time it’s in the middle layers of the atmosphere. So both at the surface and aloft we will have southwest winds blowing across the eastern half of the United States. Combined the two will bring blow-torch warmth east of the Mississippi the second week of March.
With the angle of the sun being as high as it is now and the lack of snow cover out there I could easily see us hitting 70 degrees a couple of times from March 8th through the 14th. As long as we keep that sun shining bright in the sky and the weather stays dry that week we’ll get an early taste of Spring. At the very least I would say mid 60s.
So get ready my friends! Week two (March) looks nice and mild in the Delaware and Lehigh Valleys!