This system sweeping through the Delaware Valley Wednesday afternoon is so unorganized and miniscule that it’s laughable we’re even talking about it. I titled this an event, but it’s more like just a nuisance. A small area of low pressure will travel northeast through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid Atantic states. At the same time the atmosphere will be cooling down, just barely enough to support snow. So as I continue I just want to be clear that this is such a minor event that on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 classifying as a nuisance and 10 being a blizzard, that I wouldn’t even classify this as a 1. So this is certainly nothing to be alarmed about.
First and foremost temperatures have been very warm over the past few days. Back to back days of 52 degrees coming on the heels of back to back days in the 60s last week does not bode well for accumulations. Secondly the ocean temperature is still unusually mild for this time of year, so this will keep the coastal plain above freezing. That more than likely means just a cold rain along the Jersey shore, perhaps mixing with or changing to snow before ending at night. So as this weak disturbance moves into the viewing area it will be like pulling teeth to try to get it to snow in the first place south and east of the Delaware River. In the end though I think they will get some snow out of this.
The NAM model is printing out .15 of an inch of liguid with temperatures staying above freezing while the GFS is even lighter at .11″. A general rule of thumb with snow is 1 inch of liguid is equivalent to 10 inches of snow. So just going off of those numbers alone this is nothing more than an inch of snow at best. However, with the warm ground and temperatures staying above freezing Im going to say more like just a coating to half inch at most! Look for roads to stay just wet.
It all begins Wednesday afternoon, shutting off around midnight. Thursday then looks mostly sunny and milder with highs in the mid to upper 40s. So snow lovers will get to see a little winter white on Wednesday, but this is nothing more than just a few flakes.